Subject: WSOP and J-6d LONG (By Russell Rosenblum) From: russell@dcventurelaw.com (Russell R.) Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker Date: Sun, May 26, 2002 3:24 PM Message-ID: Some people have told me not to bother responding to comments on the final table play. I feel I owe it to the group as I named this group as one of my poker mentors in the interview for whoever is going to air this. First of all, I want to thank everyone on RGP for their support. Paticularly MM (in case his boss is reading) and Bruce Kramer and Ken Adams who were crazy enough to fly out to sweat my final table. Next I want to say, I played a LOUSY final table. I have given this a lot of thought (no surprise). The J-6 was not the problem, the problem was the 4 hours leading up to the J-6. I failed to adaquitly change gears at this table. I had played with everyone at this table for at LEAST 6 hours except for Harley. There had been a consistant pattern of having Julien, Scott, and Ralph come over top of my raises for 2 days (3 days for Scott). Rob is very tough, because he simply pushes all in. The only thin that I had to go on was that none of these players had ever called my all in raises, or even my reraises (except for Julien with AK against my JJ at the end of day 4, and Julian at the beginning of Day 4 with his 66 tp my JJ). For those who know me and have played with me, a big part of my game is my talking. The problem was for the first few rounds I could not get anyone to budge. It was like playing in a morgue. The problem I made was not realizing that the players that had come over top of me on days 3 and 4 were playing WAY to tight to come over top of me on day 5. If I had properly changed gears to reflect this I would have been able to simply make 3-4x bb raises to steal blinds. Remember on days 2-4 when I tried this 3 of 4 times I would get re-raised and have to muck. So in days 2-4 I had to be more "creative" to find chips. It should also be noted that I showed down an average of 3 hands a day between days 1-4. AK, AQ (when Julien had AK), JJ (when Julien had AK), KK (against AK), a set of 66 (on day 1), and 10-5 when the 5 made a wheel and I got a free ride in the BB. I had an EXTREAMLY tight image going into day 5. My goal was to not play for an hour or so to reinforce that image, and then revert to stealing when we lost a few players. The problem was that everyone was SO TIGHT that I could, and should have opened up my game early. i finally opened up my game against the eventual winner, and he took 250K of my chips when he had AA in the BB and I made a raise UTG with AQ (I told people it was AK but now realize you will all see it on tv in a few months.). He check raised all in on a flop of JJX. Now to the J-6 hand. Obvioulsy I did not want to get called. That said, on day 4 Julian re raised a good 3/4 of my steal raises. He almost never called an all in raise by me. I had come over top of him with some bizarre hands. leading up to this hand, I finally had the table a bit looser and talking. I had said to Scott that the blinds were now big enough to make this a crap shoot--he agreed. My Soup started things getting a bit wacky. This is how I like it. My goal was to "appear" wacky, and then sgut down for a couple of rounds (absent cards). I believd (and still do) that this would enable a couple of players to go bust, move me up, and gove me a reasonable chance to get into a 3 way position where Rob had already indicated that he would talk about a deal. I was fairly confident that Julien only calls with AA, KK AK, and MAYBE QQ. Remember for 2 days AQ is the WORST hand he has seen me play. I wanted to pick up 85k in dead money. Could I have raised 75K and folded--of course. But, this was the problem, on day 4 he made me fold so often my head spun. So I stopped stealing his blinds without a hand that would would be willing to re-reraise with. The key here was to take him, and scott of of there game. Ralph appeared unshakable. This was my analysis at the time. In hindsight my analysis was completely wrong. Julian was already way off of his game as was Scott. They were far tighter than in the past and simply trying to find a strategy. Ralph was trying to take control of the table, but when he got re raised on 3 of 6 steal attempts by Rob, Shipley and myself, he shut down. I had the best seat at this table, and had I realized that the most aggressive players had shut down, I would have changed gears and opened up. In that event the J-6 would not have been necasary. This was my great failure. For those who still say why J-6? You go with what got you there. I had made this play for 3 days with similar hands against players with similar reads on me. I had just not had the misfortune to run into a hand this big yet. My plan was to shut down after this move. I still think the probability of success was extreamly high (maybe 50-1). But again, if I change gears sooner it is completly unnesacary. Why Robert won: Robert was the ONLY person at this table--either by skill or by chance--who actually opened up his game when everybody else shut down. Simply put, he was the only aggressor, and as such deserved to win. Why Shipley called with AJ-- Simply put, he cracked. he had a tell on Rob (sorry rob if you read this or if it is forwarded to you). Rob was clearly not happy that his all in with JJ was about to get called. Shipley took the sign of weakness as the opportunity to call. What he failed to realize was that he held AJ and could beat nothing. Why I mucked my JJ on day 4. I cracked. No other way to put it. First the background. I played the best poker of my life, by FAR, on day 1. I ended with 30K in chips, having shown down only 2 hands all day. And never having won a pot larger than 4K. I was about 50th in chips (of 370 or so) going into day 2. On day 2 I got a terrible table draw. I had 3 bigger stacks than me to my left. I then proceeded to get my AA cracked in about 35 minutes and was back down to 17K. I was shaken. I shook it off and ran my stack back up to 28K in 4 hours. I then tried to pick off a bluff of a guy who had raised 6 of 10 hands. I called his raise with 55 in the BB, and then check raised on a flop of J-7-2. he moved all in, and when I folded showed me AA. Woops. Now that I was short on chips, Meng La had no problem coming over top whenver I raised. so my strategy changed on how to pick up chips (private thoughts sorry, but suffice it to say it mirrored the way I played on day 5). I found myself playing survival the rest of the day. With about 1 hour left in day 2 I was down to 6500 in chips. The blinds were high (I cant recall how high but I am sure someone knows). I built my stack back up to 15K. i never showed down a hand. and lets just say the BEST hand I ever saw was AJs. With 10 minutes left in day 2 I have 15K in chips and am just happy to be alive. I am not playing any more hands. I am UTG and see AK. Well the standard raise is maybe 1500 or 2K. I dont really want to get involved. I almost fold. Instead I play "the system" and just move all in. The BB who has had enough of my moving all in 3 hands a round calls with AQ and I double up. I entered day 3 wuth about the same chips as I entered day 2 with, but was simply happy to be alive. I drew an interesting table. I had John Esposito (class act, very nice guy), and a bunch of aggressive Euorpeans. They also made it clear from the beginning that they would be coming over top of nearly all of my raises. So I had to play my day 2 strategy again. I was so close to busting so many times but managed to hold on. I entered the dinner break on day 3 with about 15000. I dont recall the blinds but I am sure someone can look them up. I was 14 out of the money but it was very clear I would not be able to blind my way there. I work my way up to about 26K. The 2 other short stacks are to my left. I decide on my button I am moving in with any 2 cards because neother one of them have over 30K and probably dont want to risk missing the money by calling without AA or KK. On my button it is folded to Ivey (on my immediate left). he makes it about 8500 to go (standard raise). So now I fold. The SB moves in, and Ivey folds. They now break our table. As Ivey is racking his chips he looks at me and says "You should thank me I saved you whole stack." I asked him what he said, and he said I knew what he meant. I did. How he knew I was moving in there I will probably nver know. I had not even looked at my cards yet. He is truly a gifted player. At my next table, I build up to about 35K without showing a hand. I am still 4 out of the money, and it is going to be close to being able to blind my way there (which is of course NOT my goal). Ross boatman make it 15K to go UTG, and I pick up KK on the button. I put on a big show which Ross says I should win an award for, and move all in. Sorry Ross it was probably poor form on my part He calls with 99 I double up. This is where the Hoover Dam comment comes in. The camera man wants me to say something witty, and to be honest I am drained. I can't even think straight. He asks me what I will have to do to make the money, and I say "Time I need time". When he asks my plan for tomorrow I mention that my wife is coming into town (planned 3 weeks ago), and she wanted to see the hoover dam. Well I dont really want to see the damn, I want her to see the Horseshoe!!! (lucky lady). Now (finally) to day 4. I have 86K in chips. One of the shorter stacks. Money moves up VERY slowly here. I am NOT NOT NOT playing to make an extra 10K. So i decide to gamble a bit. On about the 5th hand, I have AQ. UTG makes it 10K to go, I raise to 30K. Julien comes over top for 70K. UTG folds. I take a LONG time. I decide that Julien cold have TT or JJ and call (Well I move in for 10K more). This play was WORSE than my J-6, and only second to the JJ coming in a few minutes. He has AK. I flop 2 pair and turn a full, and double up. It should be noted that right after Julien turned his hand up and before the flop, I walked over to my wife and said we are going home I am done. I almost threw up right there and I was nearly to tears, i was so sick, I knew my call was awful, I knew I deserved to be busted. This is why I was so over the top when I hit my hand. 20 minutes later the JJ hand happens. Well I now had nearly 200K in chips and I had Julian covered--but mentally I assumed he still had me covered. Look this was not my finest hour of poker, there is not much more I can say. I raise in middle postion he he calls on the button (perhaps one off). Flop comes TTx. I bet maybe 20K. He makes it 50k. I cant decide if he has a T, a big pair or he is bluffing. Want to be sure so I make it 100K. He immediatly in Caro fashion shoves his chips to the middle splashing the pot it a big heap. I am now sick. If I fold I still have maybe 55K in chips (I strated with 83 and belived I could still come back with this much). I completely tilt and leave the table. I go where nobody can see me. 20 minuted ago I felt the same feeling when I thought I would get knocked out with the AQ. Julian has me covered (in my mind not in chips), and I want to avoid that sick feeling at all costs. I put him on QQ, and I dont want to go home. I Dont want to feel that sick feeling. Not with JJ. I scream Kill it, Fold it, I am out. I say this from a good 15 feet awat from the table behind the wall for cocktail waitresses. I was GONE I have NEVER NEVER been that tilted in my life. When I come back to the table they again ask what i want to do, but the dealer has now restacked Juliens chips and I only have to call about 35K. Wait he cant bust me, i will call. Matt Savage says my fold from the rail in binding. Matt made the correct ruling, and I respect him for it (as I told him 10 times afterwards). Julian then turns up 66 and takes the HUGE pot. Suffice it to say I was shaking after this hand. This was the WORST hand I have ever played. Forget the fold. I left the table and made my decision from behind a wall!!!! I got here not by having cards, but by making reads, what did I hope to read from behind the wall!!!! My entire goal had changed from making the final table to moving up 1 more table at a time. I went back to playing the way I had on days 2 and 3. I picked spots and stole pots. I dont really know how I rebounded from that. I know I called Matt Matros--he had been my unofficial coach--he told me I could rebound, but for the first time I heard the doubt in his voice. I spoke to Scott Byron, he told me to shake it off and take it as a learning experience. My wife (who had arrived late the night before) told me I had played great and should be proud to have made it this far. Interestingly 2 people I had never really met before motivated me. Mike Matasow walks into the room, and all I can think of was his quote after getting knocked out last year "you can be the best player in the world and NEVER get back here (to the final table." I just kept think, I may never get back to the final 45 again!!! I have to make the best of this and get back to my A game. The other player was Miami John. He asked if I had been short stacked in the WSOP before today. When I told him about my other days, he said I must be like him (better short stacked), and told me to do whatever I did then. The rest of the story has been told--but now to day 5 again. I was still in the mindset of being shortstacked on days 2,3, and 4. I never changed gears to where they needed to be. The J-6 was the sysmptom not the problem. Again, thanks to all for there support, I hope to bring this thing home in the future (hell I have a 15 year free roll now!!!!) Subject: Re: WSOP and J-6d LONG (By Russell Rosenblum) From: massar@alum.mit.edu (JP Massar) Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker Date: Sun, May 26, 2002 8:25 PM Message-ID: <3cf1a352.81337423@netnews.attbi.com> >Why Robert won: > >Robert was the ONLY person at this table--either by skill or by >chance--who actually opened up his game when everybody else shut down. >Simply put, he was the only aggressor, and as such deserved to win. > This is amusing. Paul Wesley (greatbrit) can verify that at our dinner celebration at Binion's steakhouse (circa midnight) Rob asked me if, once he had gotten a big stack, I thought he had big aggressive enough? I answered honestly that I thought in fact he could have even been more aggressive! Nonetheless, I think your point is correct. >Why Shipley called with AJ-- > >Simply put, he cracked. he had a tell on Rob (sorry rob if you read >this or if it is forwarded to you). Rob was clearly not happy that his >all in with JJ was about to get called. Shipley took the sign of >weakness as the opportunity to call. What he failed to realize was >that he held AJ and could beat nothing. > My take on why Shipley called was different (obviously I did not know about his comment to you). On three previous occasions Rob had executed a similar manuever against Shipley, forcing Shipley to fold and taking significant numbers of chips from him. My perception was that Shipley had simply had enough of this; he would stand for it no more. Gritting his teeth, he called against what he thought might be AA, but could be QTo. Tells such as you mention are dangerous. Rob would not want a call with QQ, JJ, TT, AQ or AK, yet all but the TT dominate Shipley's AJ, just as you note. > >Why I mucked my JJ on day 4. >I cracked. No other way to put it. Russ, you are an awesome player. I knew that years ago before I bought you in the BARGE Calcutta and you didn't disappoint. To crack after 4 days of unrelenting pressure after making what you knew was a mistake (the reraise) is only going to make you a more terrifying player in the future. You've now been there, done that. And you won't do it in the future. I think there's a good chance we'll all see you at the final table of the WSOP over the next years. Subject: Re: WSOP and J-6d LONG (By Russell Rosenblum) From: "Mike McClain" Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker Date: Mon, May 27, 2002 5:17 PM Message-ID: "AlwaysAware" wrote : > > No, it doesn't serve the same purpose. When the sb moves all in on a shorter > stacked bb that has both time and enough chips to play with, he can only call > with two hands (AA, KK). > Joan... you are way off here. I don't know the exact chip situation (Glazer's report claims that Russell had the aces, and the Julian's J6d managed to win the pot), but I'm certain that if the big blind chooses to call with such a small set of hands, he is extremely exploitable. Russell said there was $85k in dead money in the pot. Assuming that the shorter stack had about $450k, he's looking at a situation in which he is getting a return of $535k for a $450k call. More importantly, Russ is risking far less than $450k to win $85k (far less because whatever the set of hands that Julian will call with, J6s still can beat the hand). You are claiming the Julian CAN ONLY call with less than 1% of his hands, so that Russell would win this $85k 99% of the time, and have a chance of sucking out on AA or KK the other 1% of the time. This is a hugely profitable situation for Russ, and it would be coming at the cost of Julian. Julian simply cannot afford to play that tightly, or Russ can go all-in every single time this situation comes up. I'll agree that there might be some players that play this tightly, and that Russ' play would be absolutely correct against those players. And I'm not saying that Julian was not playing so tightly the Russ' move did not have positive chip (and perhaps profit) expectation -- it very likely did. What I am saying is that you cannot say that Julian MUST fold all but AA or KK. You are claiming he must play in a manner that can be exploited, and that's just not the case. A player who is attempting to play non-exploitably is going to play much looser than that. A player only calling with aces or kings can either be exploited, or he himself is exploiting the raiser, who is not raising often enough. The set of hands that Julian would need to call with such that he could not be exploited is probably fairly large. Russ' play was probably a good one, since Julian was likely playing too tightly in that situation, but not too tightly in the situation in which he had the option of reraising. Mike. Subject: Re: WSOP and J-6d LONG (By Russell Rosenblum) From: alwaysaware@aol.com (AlwaysAware) Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker Date: Mon, May 27, 2002 6:02 PM Message-ID: <20020527210213.15587.00001009@mb-ct.aol.com> Mike: While I agree with much of what you are saying, I still stand by my comment that raising instead of going all in on THAT hand does NOT accomplish the same thing. With THAT player on THAT day it simply doesn't. Julian had demonstrated in the past that he was capable of coming over a bet and reversing the table and putting the other player to a test to all his chips. He did it to Russell brillantly. Russ was on a pure steal, it doesn't matter what his hand was or for that matter if he looked at his hand. Julian was not desperate nor was he overflowing with chips. For him to CALL all in for ALL his chips he simply can't without a premium hand, unless he is ready to go home. Would you call with a 55 or 77 or even AK, even if you suspect a steal? I would fold and wait for a better opportunity, one where I was the aggressor. I have come to far, and have enough chips with which to play that I will not take a possible 50-50 shot here. I will wait, getting my chips elsewhere and hope that the sb does it to me again when I have a hand. If I ONLY raise him, if he has a little something it allows him to play, it also allows him to play back at me and force me to fold my hand. I still think that raising only, does not accomplish the same thing as moving in (when your opponent is forced to play for ALL his chips) Joan who has stopped reading a lot of the reports by authors as a lot of things are not written accurately. >From: "Mike McClain" mmcclain_hatefnspam@omsoft.com >Joan... you are way off here. I don't know the exact chip situation >(Glazer's >report claims that Russell had the aces, and the Julian's J6d managed to >win the pot), but I'm certain that if the big blind chooses to call with such >a >small set of hands, he is extremely exploitable. > >Russell said there was $85k in dead money in the pot. Assuming that the >shorter stack had about $450k, he's looking at a situation in which he is >getting a return of $535k for a $450k call. More importantly, Russ is >risking far less than $450k to win $85k (far less because whatever the set >of hands that Julian will call with, J6s still can beat the hand). You are >claiming the Julian CAN ONLY call with less than 1% of his hands, >so that Russell would win this $85k 99% of the time, and have a chance >of sucking out on AA or KK the other 1% of the time. This is a hugely >profitable situation for Russ, and it would be coming at the cost of >Julian. > >Julian simply cannot afford to play that tightly, or Russ can go all-in >every single time this situation comes up. > >I'll agree that there might be some players that play this tightly, and that >Russ' play would be absolutely correct against those players. And I'm >not saying that Julian was not playing so tightly the Russ' move did not >have positive chip (and perhaps profit) expectation -- it very likely did. >What I am saying is that you cannot say that Julian MUST fold all but >AA or KK. > >You are claiming he must play in a manner that can be exploited, and >that's just not the case. A player who is attempting to play non-exploitably >is going to play much looser than that. A player only calling with aces >or kings can either be exploited, or he himself is exploiting the raiser, >who is not raising often enough. > >The set of hands that Julian would need to call with such that he could >not be exploited is probably fairly large. Russ' play was probably a >good one, since Julian was likely playing too tightly in that situation, >but not too tightly in the situation in which he had the option of reraising. > > >Mike.